Quote from sachinm on 28 September 2023, 6:14 pmIn Section 1, the Risk & Complexity SIG's proposed Practice Guide is hoping to provide an overview on general theory and practice guidance on Risk & Complexity .
Section 1 will be built on the following Chapter Listings:
- Part 1: We live in a complex world (Context and Background)
- Part 2: Why should we look out for complexity (and how)
- Part 3: How can we respond to complexity (and why)
- Part 4: Theoretical implications and limitations
Here, we ask...What other elements would you add to “Section 1: General theory and practice guidance on risk & complexity”.
So, if you think we have missed proposing a key element in the proposed Practice Guide, then press "Reply" and challenge us with ideas on additional risk and complexity theory and practice guidance.
**ALL your suggestions will be reviewed by the Chapter Leads as a potential addition to their section of the Practice Guide.**
In Section 1, the Risk & Complexity SIG's proposed Practice Guide is hoping to provide an overview on general theory and practice guidance on Risk & Complexity .
Section 1 will be built on the following Chapter Listings:
Here, we ask...What other elements would you add to “Section 1: General theory and practice guidance on risk & complexity”.
So, if you think we have missed proposing a key element in the proposed Practice Guide, then press "Reply" and challenge us with ideas on additional risk and complexity theory and practice guidance.
**ALL your suggestions will be reviewed by the Chapter Leads as a potential addition to their section of the Practice Guide.**
Quote from sachinm on 5 October 2023, 9:19 amAs an idea to get the ball rolling here, we can ask should we include "Best Practices for Better Risk Exposure Estimation" within the Practical Guidance:
Most CAPEX programmes develop their ‘Should Cost’ from the Cost Estimating Database (e.g., Candy) using Unit of Measurements, Asset Type characteristics and benchmarking techniques.
This ensures confidence in cost and schedule estimates for all our programmes from inception to completion, we are delivering improvements to enable a more robust understanding of the risk exposure throughout the lifecycle of development and delivery. This includes the introduction of Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) at early stages of development to define required contingencies, and then later used as a reference tool against cost risk and schedule risk assessment outputs.
Reference Class Estimating is a forecasting tool based on actual outturn costs of similar Works undertaken in the past. To use this approach, we typically follow the steps below:
- Identifying the relevant reference class of past, similar Works.
- Establishing a probability distribution for the selected reference class.
- Comparing the specific project with the reference class distribution, to establish the most likely outcome for the specific Works.
- Establishing a probability distribution for the selected reference class.
- Comparing the specific Works with the reference class distribution, to establish the most likely outcome for the specific Works.
Thereafter, Whole Life Costing (WLC) activities follow the RIBA plan of works format, the cost breakdown structure from the ISO 15686, and the ‘unit cost framework’ methodology of RICS new rules of measurement (NRM) suite of documents below:
- NRM 1: Order of cost estimating and cost planning for capital building works.
- NRM 2: Detailed measurement for building works.
- NRM 3: Order of cost estimating and cost planning for building maintenance works.
So, how does complexity theory change this traditional approach, and what Practical Guidance can we include to help you manage your projects better?
Let us know your thoughts...
As an idea to get the ball rolling here, we can ask should we include "Best Practices for Better Risk Exposure Estimation" within the Practical Guidance:
Most CAPEX programmes develop their ‘Should Cost’ from the Cost Estimating Database (e.g., Candy) using Unit of Measurements, Asset Type characteristics and benchmarking techniques.
This ensures confidence in cost and schedule estimates for all our programmes from inception to completion, we are delivering improvements to enable a more robust understanding of the risk exposure throughout the lifecycle of development and delivery. This includes the introduction of Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) at early stages of development to define required contingencies, and then later used as a reference tool against cost risk and schedule risk assessment outputs.
Reference Class Estimating is a forecasting tool based on actual outturn costs of similar Works undertaken in the past. To use this approach, we typically follow the steps below:
Thereafter, Whole Life Costing (WLC) activities follow the RIBA plan of works format, the cost breakdown structure from the ISO 15686, and the ‘unit cost framework’ methodology of RICS new rules of measurement (NRM) suite of documents below:
So, how does complexity theory change this traditional approach, and what Practical Guidance can we include to help you manage your projects better?
Let us know your thoughts...
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